Investment in medtech. “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.”
It seems that symbol of 2020 should be unpredictability. Economic, political and epidemiological changes in the world became a good coach for me. They have trained me well how to avoid uncertainties of their interpretation and find a way to build my development strategy.
It would be folly to predict the future but to strategize we can look at some trends. Recent events have highlighted the urgency with which the issues are discussed.
Predictability of medtech:
Mar-Apr.2020 when companies announce participation in Cov-19 vaccine development and get investments. As a result, we could expect growth in stock prices such companies as AstraZeneca a1 and PHIZER b1
Sep.20 AstraZeneca announced the research results warning about Covid-19 vaccine’s side effect and put the studies on hold due to suspected adverse reaction of a participant in the U.K. 2
Dec.20 PFIZER AND BIONTECH announced the publication of results from landmark Phase 3 trial of BNT162B2 COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the New England Journal of Medicine 3
However, company’s stock prices do not always reflect the real state of affairs.
Unpredictability. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
We can get completely unexpected players on the market.
E.g. Kodak Pharmaceuticals, a new arm of the company that was expected to develop Cov-19 vaccine In the end on Jul.20 DFC signed a Letter of Interest for Investment in Kodak’s Expansion Into Pharmaceuticals 4. Kodak stock price has exponentially grown up at the beginning of September 20, but this spike remained sharp only for 1 month. c1
Was Kodak’s story predictable? 5
The impact of the highly predictable investment in medtech.
The truth is that hard to predict when we invest in a long-term?
It is similar to a geometrical construction of Bermudian which can’t be solved as the triple unknown theorem.
It’s very unpredictable and even strange if a company looks down at a psychological pattern. In other words, if the professional society decides whether it is fashionable or not and company puts it into development strategy, such stocks are highly volatile. Following brand fashion is not always advantageous. Sometimes a great company with amazing products just doesn’t know how to present itself well.
The customer doesn’t need to get into the real situation of the company or the real cost of the product for the company. The customer always wants to understand only the real benefits for himself at the moment or the real value in a long time prospective. In the most critical situation, one wants to understand whether he’s getting pasta or toilet paper.
My experience shows that the most predictable sales strategy is to discuss with the client the current personal or/and market situation and help understand the personal instruments for investing his funds. The customer is always reserves the right to create his/her own personal investment in a company.
What is your/ company’s/ success strategy?
What does your company invest to become more predictable to the customer, less dangerous when playing in long-term and successful stock price?
What are you betting on?
· Company/product fashion and community psychological pattern or access to a competent consultant to help with personal situation
· Evidence based medicine or Evidence based marketing
· Sales trainings or sales shifting
“We need more tinkering: Uninhibited, aggressive, proud tinkering. We need to make our own luck. We can be scared and worried about the future, or we can look at it as a collection of happy surprises that lie outside the path of our imagination.”6
References:
1. Nasdaq stoke prices
2. Stat News. “AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in participant in the U.K.”
3. Pfizer Inc. “PFIZER AND BIONTECH announced the publication of results from landmark Phase 3 trial of BNT162B2 COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the New England Journal of Medicine”
4. U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. “US Development DFC to Sign Letter of Interest for Investment in Kodak’s Expansion Into Pharmaceuticals Finance Corporation”
5. Pharmaceutical Processing world. “Kodak internal review finds problems but no lawbreaking over pharma loan deal”
6. Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”.
